Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Would the average American profit by selling their homes and buying Oil Futures???Will oil out perform Housing

I'm starting to think renting a small apartment and putting your average Mortgage Payment into Oil is a much better plan than paying to paint the bedroom and mow the grass.Would the average American profit by selling their homes and buying Oil Futures???Will oil out perform Housing
I don't know about buying oil futures. I do know that every time the words { what if } comes up in a Government conversation about the war, the price of crud-oil goes up 10 cents a barrel.Would the average American profit by selling their homes and buying Oil Futures???Will oil out perform Housing
A house is a luxury and liability, not an investment (Warren Buffet, 2004). But oil futures could crash and burn, if the USA finally let technology do its job and drive waste down.
anything is better than housing now
No. The price of oil is higher than demand warrents right now--partly due to manipulation of the market by the oil companies and the Bush administration--and partly do to the same kind of buying frenzy that ran housing prices up way out of reason.





When-not if--the current administration's policies in the mideast (plus some other things) are reversed starting in 2009, the price of oil will moderate. That is likely to happen even sooner ifthe current economic slowdown becomes a full-blown recession.





That's the near term. Long term, oil is a very bad investnemt. The reason is that it is an obsolete technology (remember that its essentially the same as it was wen cars, using gasoline were first developed--in the 1800s). There are far better-and cheaper--ways of producing the energy we now get from oil. That modern technology--from solar and wind powr to electric cars--is starting to be available now. Oil (and coal, by the way) is simply not going to be able to compete long term with 21st century alternatives. That's simply the way the technology is going--and has nothing to do with the environmental issues. Those--while very important, will affect the long-term outlook only in that they will provide an incentive to accelerate shifts from fossil fuels to more economical forms of energy production and use.
To each his own.
Sure, if you want to live in a stupid drum...
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